Covid-19

Covid-19: Asymptomatic Risk… More Evidence Social Distancing is Critical

Aggressive social distancing (aka #StayTheFuckHome) is critical for slowing the spread of coronavirus, which is critical to flattening the curve and preventing the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. Yet, many slow adjusters still just don’t get it!

Well, there’s some more evidence that highlights why social distancing is so important and I wanted to take a moment to share the information with you!

In an article by Graham Lawton in NewScientist, research published last week by Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University in New York and his colleagues reveals the danger that asymptomatic carriers of Covid-19 pose to others.

First, the article aptly reemphasizes the fact that the virus can significantly impact folks of all ages. Infection can result in anyone—even younger folks in otherwise good health—becoming critically ill… even to the point of requiring hospitalization and treatment in intensive care.

However, the real danger with this high-R0 virus is those who are infected… but asymptomatic!

Covid-19 Asymptomatic Spread Risk
Excerpt from Article

The fact is that no one—including you and I—can know that we are NOT infected (without testing). We and others can be carrying the virus (and spreading it) with very little—or absolutely no—symptoms!

This is what makes it so difficult to contain—or at least slowdown the spread—of the coronavirus. It is also why social distancing is so critical.

The best way to protect yourself and your family to aggressively limit your exposure to others (aka #StayTheFuckHome)—whether you think they are sick or not.

In fact, the study finds that as much as 86% of infected people are asymptomatic!

Furthermore, while asymptomatic individuals are only 55% as contagious… the study finds that these individuals are the primary driver (79%) of further infections!

Why? Because they don’t look or feel sick and, therefore, interact with others without concern or caution.

Coronavirus Asymptomatic Spread Risk
Excerpt from Article

Let that sink in for a minute.

If we want to slow the spread of Covid-19, we must utilize and respect non-pharmaceutical interventions—such as social distancing and stay-at-home orders.

If you want to protect yourself and your family, stay home, limit your interaction with others, and wear protective equipment in public (viz., masks and gloves).

Making matters worse is that Covid-19 viral loads (unlike SARS) has a high initial viral load, which decreases over time.

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This means that all those asymptomatic are unknowingly spreading a lot of virus!

Again, (1) asymptomatic spreading and (2) high initial viral loads are two of the reasons coronavirus is so communicable (i.e., has a high R0).

Covid-19 Asymptomatic Spread Risk
Excerpt from Article

With SARS, we were able to identify and selectively quarantine infected individuals before their viral loads become high—enabling us to mitigate the spread.

Again, with Covid-19, the ones most responsible for spreading the virus are the very ones we are least likely to identify—and they have a high viral load during that period of time.

Our advice to our readers remains consistent:

  • Wear a mask (and gloves) when outside of your controlled environment (i.e., home)
  • Stay at home as much as possible
  • Don’t judge a book by its cover—asymptomatic carriers can be highly contagious

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Doug

Doug is a passionate servant of Christ and holds an MBA, BBA (Summa Cum Laude), and AAcc from Liberty University, as well as an additional two years of study at Bible college. He has over 20-years of corporate finance, accounting, and operations management experience—spanning the public, private and nonprofit sectors. He is proud to have served his country as a member of the 82nd Airborne Division and his local communities as a firefighter/EMT and reserve peace officer—experience that has provided him with a unique skill-set when it comes to emergency medicine, firearms, crisis management, and wilderness survival. Doug enjoys playing the drums, prepping, and spending time with family—especially in the Outer Banks of NC.